Changes in Temperature and Rainfall Extremes in Vietnam under Progressive Global Warming Levels from 1.5ºC to 4ºC

This study analyzes projected climate extremes in Vietnam using 33 statistically downscaled CMIP6 models across global warming levels (GWLs) from 1.5°C to 4°C. Results reveal significant regional changes in temperature and precipitation patterns. In particular substantial warming trends compared to the baseline period 1995–2014: at the national scale, maximum temperatures are projected to increase on average by 1.5°C and 2.2°C at 2°C and 3°C GWL respectively, with northern regions experiencing more pronounced effects. The annual percentage of warm days could dramatically increase from 25.5% at 2°C GWL to 57.5% at 4°C GWL. Southern regions, particularly the Mekong Delta and Southeast, face the most severe heat impacts. Precipitation projections show high uncertainty, due to large inter-model spread, with moderate intensity increases ranging from 3.3% to 7.8% across GWLs. The North Central Region is expected to experience the largest precipitation increases. The annual maximum number of consecutive dry days is projected to increase across regions, with the southern areas experiencing the longest durations and the most substantial increases. The study emphasizes the critical importance of reducing global greenhouse gas emissions but also the urgent need for flexible, targeted adaptation strategies to mitigate potential impacts on health, agriculture, water resources, and economic productivity.